Will Construction Costs Go Down in 2023-2024?

Introduction

Previously, we discussed projections for how much it will cost to renovate a house in 2023. In this article, we will further examine whether construction costs overall will decrease in the coming year. Maybe you want to know "How to Plan for Elevated Building" in 2023-2024.

For many prospective homebuilders and renovators, realizing their dream home feels increasingly out of reach as construction costs have skyrocketed over the past two years. With elevated expenses projected to persist in 2023, a pressing question emerges – will relief from these astronomical building costs arrive anytime soon? Given current economic conditions, including labor shortages and high housing demand, experts anticipate costs remaining lofty.

By examining the key drivers inflating prices and strategizing effective budget management, new construction may still pencil out for those able to navigate the challenges ahead.

What Are the Cost Drivers of Construction?

A convergence of systemic economic factors, including labor shortages, supply chain turmoil, high demand, and inflationary pressure, has created a perfect storm driving construction costs upwards.

Labor Shortages and Rising Wages

An aging workforce and fewer young people entering the trades have reduced the skilled construction labor pool, leading to shortages. According to an analysis by Associated Builders and Contractors, the construction industry will need to hire 546,000 additional workers in 2023 beyond normal hiring rates to meet labor demand, underscoring bleak staffing outlooks.

With high demand and low supply, construction workers can command higher wages. This labor cost inflation gets passed on to clients. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wages and salaries increased 4.7% for the 12-month period ending in June 2023, compared to 3.2% a year ago. This rapid pay growth is expected to persist as builders compete for talent in a strained labor market. Wage pressures will continue driving construction costs upward.

Rising Material Costs

The rapidly escalating price of key construction materials like lumber, steel, and aluminum is negatively impacting housing affordability. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), supply shortages and import tariffs are exacerbating material price volatility, driving up home building costs substantially. Some homebuyers have walked away from projects mid-build as escalating material expenses lead to ballooning overall costs. Until material costs stabilize, new home construction will remain expensive and challenging to budget for builders and buyers alike.

Ongoing High Demand Driving Costs

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), high demand continues to drive construction costs upwards. NAR analysis shows the number of renters who can afford median-priced homes exceeds national averages, signaling strong potential buying power. However, limited housing inventory constrains supply, as new construction lags behind demand. Despite cooling inflation potentially stabilizing mortgage rates below 6%, tight inventories will sustain high demand versus supply through 2023. With more prospective buyers than available properties, construction costs will remain inflated.

Inflation Surge Post-Covid and Ukraine War

The inflation following COVID-19 and the Ukraine war significantly increased construction costs. According to Statista, a leading provider of market and consumer data, peaking at over 9% in 2022, inflation was fueled by supply chain issues and low-interest rates. Though the inflation rate has halved by mid-2023, core inflation has remained steady. This has kept pressure on construction expenses - material and labor costs have surged with higher prices for lumber, steel, fuel, and wages. While the full impact is debated, inflated costs have undoubtedly strained construction budgets.

With multiple interdependent factors straining the construction ecosystem, experts anticipate construction costs remaining substantially elevated throughout 2023 until market dynamics realign.

How to Plan and Manage Home Construction Costs?

Taking on a major home construction or renovation project is always a financial endeavor requiring careful planning and cost management. In today's challenging market conditions, having a strategic approach is more critical than ever for keeping your dream build within budget.

1. Get Multiple Quotes

It is advisable to solicit at least 3-5 competitive bids from licensed general contractors to gain greater transparency into true costs. Comparing detailed line item breakdowns can reveal variances in projected labor, materials, fees, and timelines that inform negotiations. For example, contractor A may charge 20% more in labor but 10% less in materials than contractor B.

2. Scale Back Selectively

You can thoroughly evaluate opportunities to downsize square footage, simplify finishings, or even stage projects without compromising quality or aesthetics. Tips here: Home Staging Tips To Boost Your Home Sale Price By 20% Or More.

For instance, finishing the basement later or building a 600 sq ft addition before the 1200 sq ft master wing. Strategically rightsizing high-cost elements yields tangible savings.

3. Consider Modular Materials

Prefabricated components like exterior SIPs panels, roof trusses, and timber floor systems involve factory optimization for efficient on-site installation. Builders report 20-30% labor cost reductions from reducing highly skilled on-site framing, roofing, and other complex tasks when using modular building elements.

4. Ask About Discounts

Suppliers will often offer 10-20% discounts on large material packages like entire kitchen sets of cabinets, appliances, and fixtures purchased together. Leveraging contractor relationships to inquire about deal-sweeteners on big-ticket purchases can lead to thousands in savings.

5. Incentivize Efficient Timelines

Offering $500 bonus payments for every day a project finishes ahead of schedule or $250 fees for every day late provides meaningful incentives for contractors to optimize efficiencies. This prevents excess rental equipment fees or temporary utility costs that overrun budgets.

6. Minimize Change Orders

Industry data shows each modification from the original plans adds 4-8% to total costs on average. By planning thoroughly upfront and limiting changes to essential items only during building, you avoid unnecessary budget creep from revision inefficiencies.

With strategic planning, prioritization, negotiation, and efficiency incentives, you can exert greater control over costs, even when broader market factors feel outside your influence.

How to Reduce Your Home Construction Costs?

In today's inflated market, getting creative with cost-saving tactics can help make your dream home build more affordable. Focusing on areas with flexibility to reduce expenditures while protecting quality can yield real dividends.

1. Use Less Expensive Finishes

You can substitute lower-cost siding materials like fiber cement boards versus cedar planks or vinyl flooring rather than hardwoods. These durable, attractive options emulate the look of premium finishes at a fraction of the price. For example, composite or PVC decking offers 70% cost savings over exotic tropical hardwoods yet provides lasting performance.

2. Provide Your Own Materials

Savvy homebuilders will source lighting fixtures, hardware, appliances, and other items independently since these are traditionally marked up 10-50% by contractors. Coordinate with your builder to supply specialty items you've researched and purchased independently without impacting project warranties. Just confirm the specifications required ahead of time.

3. Optimize Scheduling

It is recommended to break projects into phases which allows you to budget and finance each strategic segment separately over time based on priorities. For instance, first, complete the core structure and essential utilities before tackling the expansive deck and outdoor kitchen additions. Starting with vital elements provides cost flexibility.

4. Negotiate Terms

It would be wise to negotiate contractor payment terms that minimize large upfront outlays. Installment plans tied to timeline milestones allow you to fluidly disperse payments as progress is made.

Discuss options like 10% down, followed by 20% at framing, 35% at drywall, and balance upon satisfactory final walkthrough. Maybe a construction quality control sheet will help you.

5. Leverage Financing

You can leverage construction loans, home equity lines of credit, or personal secured lines with favorable interest rates to access capital for different project phases while allowing you to strategically manage payments over 12-24 months. This avoids tapping savings.

Getting creative, scouting deals, and optimizing timelines provide options to trim home-building costs even when broader economic factors feel daunting.

Discover more: Kitchen Remodel Cost in 2023: Everything You Need to Know.

Construction Costs Remain High, Yet Effective Budgeting Can Still Make a Difference

Given the multitude of systemic factors straining supplies and driving up home building costs, construction costs will remain substantially elevated through 2023 and likely into 2024. If you want to know the house renovation in 2023, click here.

This inflationary environment requires prospective home builders and renovators to take a defensive financial posture. Meticulous planning, thorough research, selective prioritization, and creative cost savings tactics will be essential to maintain feasibility. Construction costs may not be decreasing soon, but they can still pencil out with prudent budgeting.

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